Atomic surge

It is hard to forget the dreaded load shedding stages in South Africa, which utility Eskom often ascribed to ‘wet coal’.

Coal has long been the main generator of energy in South Africa, with Eskom operating a fleet of 14 coal-fired power plants, including the key ones of Medupi and Matimba in Limpopo, and Kusile and Kendal in Mpumalanga. South Africa even has a port terminal for coal – the Richards Bay Coal Terminal – that has the capacity to handle and ship 91 million tons of coal a year.

South Africa still generates 74% of its electricity from this fossil fuel. But the coal age is passing, and government has a plan, a pretty major one in fact, for the successful transition to renewable and cleaner technologies, including solar, wind, gas and nuclear. In March 2025, the South African government rolled out a framework to develop the country’s renewable energy industry – the Renewable Energy Masterplan. In October, Cabinet approved the ZAR2.23 trillion Integrated Resource Plan (IRP 2025), which sets out a roadmap for this transition.

The IRP 2025 outlines a phased shutdown of the coal fleet, starting in 2029 with a reduction of 8 GW in coal capacity between 2029 and 2030, followed by another decrease of 15 GW from 2034–2042. The total coal capacity is projected to decline from the current ~42 GW to ~28 W by 2034, with all but two of South Africa’s coal power stations scheduled to close by 2050.

So, what will replace this energy source? The plan projects significant new generation capacity with the addition of more than 105 GW by 2039, across nuclear, renewables gas, and battery storage.

New nuclear capacity has been allocated 5.2 GW (potentially expanded to 10 GW, subject to the outcomes of the Nuclear Industrialisation Plan), and the aim is for it to come online from 2036 until 2039.

It will be anchored by four pressurised water reactors (PWR), supplemented by a fleet of small modular reactors (SMR) that will replace the retiring coal power stations. Late last year, South Africa’s pebble bed modular reactor (PBMR) technology was lifted out of care and maintenance after Cabinet approved the decision to allow further development and to transfer the PBMR company from Eskom to the South African Nuclear Energy Corporation (Necsa). Cabinet will also be requested to support the reopening of the PBMR centre at Pelindaba, with a view to rebuilding the country’s nuclear supply chain.

The Minister of Electricity and Energy, Kgosientsho Ramokgopa, believes nuclear energy is vital to providing clean, reliable baseload power when renewable sources are offline.

‘Nuclear energy has returned to the centre of strategic planning not out of nostalgia, not out of ideology, but out of structural necessity,’ he told the Africa Energy Indaba in March this year. ‘Nuclear energy remains the only dispatchable, zero-emission technology capable of operating at scale around the clock, independent of weather volatility, commodity price shocks and geopolitical disruption. It is infrastructure measured not in electoral cycles but in generations.’

He went on to say that nuclear remains core to South Africa’s future energy mix, and ‘we intend to grow our capacity in the coming decades, through our IRP 2025’.

As the coal era wanes, nuclear power has become core to South Africa’s energy mix, especially as baseload power when renewable sources are offline

With most African regions experiencing shortages of electricity, South Africa is not the only country on the continent with a renewed focus on nuclear. More than 20 nations have formally shown an interest in nuclear development, with Ghana, Kenya and Nigeria having conducted their pre-feasibility studies.

Egypt is advancing one of Africa’s most ambitious and significant nuclear projects at El Dabaa on the Mediterranean coast. This four-unit power plant is valued at around US$30 billion, with Russia covering 85% of the cost through a US$25 billion loan. Once completed, the four nuclear reactors are expected to generate 4.8 GW of electricity for about 25 million people, significantly boosting the country’s baseload capacity. Construction has started and the first unit is projected to begin supplying power around 2028. This project offers South Africa a useful point of reference as it looks to fulfil its nuclear ambitions while navigating a complex economic and regulatory environment.

Many may wonder how the South African government plans to carry out its grand plan, especially when it has only one commercial nuclear power plant. Situated on the outskirts of Melkbosstrand on the west coast, Koeberg Nuclear Power Station has contributed approximately 5% of the country’s national electricity supply for almost four decades and has operated at capacity factors consistently above 80%. Koeberg and Thyspunt on the Eastern Cape coast have been earmarked as sites for advancing the country’s nuclear development. While the former has existing infrastructure (including two pressurised water reactors), skilled personnel and regulatory frameworks, Thyspunt is simply a preferred greenfield site, thanks to its stability and low seismic risk. Last year Eskom was still considering it as a new reactor site, focusing on its potential for a 4 GW plant.

Both sites are regarded as essential if the country wants to achieve the 10 GW nuclear target, but expansive work will need to be done first.

Thanks to the National Nuclear Regulator (NNR) granting a 20-year life extension for its Unit 2 in November 2025, Eskom has secured the immediate future of Koeberg. However, Daily Maverick reports that the expansion plan, specifically the 4 GW Nuclear-1 site next to Koeberg at Duynefontein, is tied up in a legal battle after a coalition of civil society groups, including Greenpeace Africa, launched a high court review this year. And despite the Department of Mineral Resources being optimistic that Thyspunt will become operational by 2030, it will require significant infrastructure investment and will need to solve issues raised by the community and environmentalists.

Kouga News reports that a community engagement session held in May last year highlighted the project’s potential economic benefits, including job creation and skills development for local residents, but there is still plenty more that needs to be done before Thyspunt comes close to being a reality.

While some sceptics have questioned the viability of government’s ambitious nuclear plan, especially considering the financial and regulatory resources needed, former CEO of the National Nuclear Regulator and current chair of the Ministerial Expert Panel on Nuclear, Bismark Tyobeka, describes the IRP as ‘bold’ and ‘progressive’.

According to World Nuclear News, he feels the project timescales are realistic. ‘It is indeed an ambitious plan, but I welcome the minister’s pragmatic approach and its proposed implementation in manageable stages.’ He believes the timeline is achievable because of the preparatory work done by the South African nuclear sector, adding, ‘the time is right, and the key players are ready’.

Only time will tell if this is indeed the case, and whether there will be a successful execution of the plan. But there is no question that South Africa has to make the transition from coal to alternative energy sources, for economic and environmental reasons.

As Ramokgopa says: ‘There is no economy that grows if the lights are off. There are no industries that will decide to locate in South Africa if we can’t guarantee them available electricity that is of good quality and that is affordable.