‘Green hydrogen projects are novel and very complex.’ That simple, but profound, statement came from Paul Lochner, head of environmental management services at South Africa’s Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR), speaking at the launch in February 2025 of two locally developed tools to help prepare the landscape for the green hydrogen economy.

‘These tools are intended to assist industry, government, NGOs and other stakeholders in integrating the environmental and social planning of green hydrogen projects into existing legislation and decision-making.’

Funded by German development agency GIZ through its H2.SA programme, the two instruments were developed over two years by CSIR researchers and German consultants.

The first – the South African Green Hydrogen Potential Atlas – aims to support spatial planning for green hydrogen projects

CSIR senior researcher Luanita Snyman van der Walt says the goal of the atlas is to help identify regions ‘which could be further investigated for green hydrogen development feasibility. It is based on the best available data at the time, but to err on the side of caution, development decisions must be based on fine-scale investigation, ground truthing and stakeholder engagement’.

The second tool is an instruction manual for environmental impact assessments for ‘complex green hydrogen systems’. There’s that word again – complex.

The complexity of the green hydrogen undertaking was again underscored in mid-February by two South African chemical engineers, Craig McGregor and Bruce Douglas Young, writing in the Conversation. ‘The success of green hydrogen projects depends on simultaneously developing infrastructure that will transport the green hydrogen to industry. It will also need industries to adopt new technology or convert existing equipment so that they can switch from using fossil fuels to using green hydrogen,’ they write.

‘Think of it like building a new railway system. You wouldn’t construct a train station without first laying train tracks and making sure trains are available to run on it.’

The development of the industry is further complicated by the fact that, as Lochner suggested, there is no tried-and-tested roadmap or best practice with novel technology.

Underscoring the monumental task ahead, Alfonso Medinilla and Koen Dekeyser of European thinktank ECDPM, write in a March 2024 online post that ‘maximising the benefits of African green hydrogen will require action on multiple fronts, including industrial policies, energy systems, international partnerships, regional co-operation and domestic markets’.

‘Unlike other major cornerstones of decarbonisation, like renewable energy deployment or electric vehicles, the hydrogen economy remains in a relatively early and in some cases experimental stage. This means that while major long-term opportunities are expected, the path to get there is far less clear,’ they point out.

According to the International Renewable Energy Agency, the single-largest cost associated with producing green hydrogen is the renewable energy infrastructure required to drive the electrolysis that splits H₂0 into oxygen and hydrogen, followed by the cost of the electrolysis infrastructure itself. There’s also infrastructure related to water provision, hydrogen storage and distribution. South Africa’s own Just Energy Transition Plan (JETP) of 2022 estimated the investment required to prepare the necessary infrastructure ‘in the region of US$133 billion to fund more than 100 GW of dedicated renewable electricity capacity (wind and solar) and more than 60 GW of electrolyser capacity’.

Challenges notwithstanding, green hydrogen programmes are gathering pace across the continent, driven largely by Europe, which has a 20 million ton target for green hydrogen consumption by 2030.

In March 2025, the European Union (EU) committed to investing EUR4.7 billion in clean energy projects in South Africa, a large slice reportedly ringfenced for green hydrogen.

‘South Africa has everything to become a global leader: You have clean energy in abundance, from wind to sun. You have raw materials that are critical for electrolysers, including 91% of the world’s platinum group metal reserves,’ EU Commission president, Ursula van Leyen, said at the announcement of the Global Gateway Investment Package. ‘And you have a rising industry to produce clean hydrogen and strong export ambitions. European companies are interested in investing here. But they need more incentives.’

The case for developing green hydrogen for export can be made for Morocco and Egypt, given their proximity to Europe. Not so much for the rest of Africa.

Still, Norwegian consultancy Rystad Energy says 61% of Africa’s total announced electrolyser pipeline capacity of 114 GW is in fact located in sub-Saharan Africa, with Mauritania – a seven-day sea voyage from Europe – covering 50% of the regional total, followed by South Africa and Namibia.

Mauritania has already adopted a Green Hydrogen Code, which sets up a legal framework for the industry, and it has at least three substantial projects in the pipeline – all funded in part by European or UK companies. There’s the US$40 billion 30 GW Aman project; another US$34 billion facility that will produce 8 million tons of green hydrogen or other hydrogen-based end products annually; and the 10 GW Project Nour.

Two European firms are also developing a green hydrogen project in Angola, designed to use existing hydroelectric power capacity to produce green hydrogen in a sustainable manner. As with many of the planned green hydrogen projects in Africa, green ammonia – 400 000 tons of it in this case – will be produced downstream.

German chemical engineering society, Dechema, meanwhile, estimates that green hydrogen production in Namibia could be among the cheapest in the world by 2030, second only to Chile. On the back of that, the country signed an MoU with the EU two years ago to promote its green hydrogen (GH₂) programme.

According to the recently launched Blueprint for Namibia’s Green Industrialisation, US$40 billion is needed to kickstart its green hydrogen ambitions, with another US$10 billion to support ‘regional connectivity and port development’.

In January 2025, Namibia and the EU announced they are partnering to drum up US$21 billion in European private investment.

Namibia’s showpiece is the US$10 billion 3 GW Hyphen Hydrogen Energy project in the Tsau //Khaeb National Park, a joint venture between Germany’s Enertrag and UK-based Nicholas Holdings Limited. Hyphen reports that environmental and social impact assessments will start this year.

In Walvis Bay, Brussels-based shipping company CMB.Tech and private Namibian consortium Ohlthaver & List Group are behind Cleanergy Solutions Namibia’s GH₂ project. In mid-2024, Belgium’s King Philippe attended the ceremonial first filling of a dual-fuel truck at the project’s first hydrogen filling station.

The project’s solar-powered GH₂ production plant is the first phase in a five-year pipeline of related projects at the site, including large-scale ammonia production and bunkering. Cleanenergy and the national port authority Namport are also collaborating on Africa’s first hydrogen-fuelled vessel – a multifunctional port utility vessel.

Another GH₂-linked project is the German-funded TransNamib HyRail project, which envisages having a green hydrogen-powered locomotive on track by April 2025. It is, however, a reminder of the complex and novel nature of these projects.

According to the Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR), the HyRail project was paused in September 2024 to address ‘cash flow and governance problems’ at TransNamib. ‘The risks associated with first movers may be too burdensome for a parastatal to undertake, especially one in a precarious position. The pause to re-energise TransNamib’s operations and develop a transition plan may yield greater outcomes,’ according to IPPR research associate Suzie Shefeni.

Writing in a later opinion piece for the Mail & Guardian, Shefeni and Namibian researcher Vivian ! Nou-/Gawaseb suggest South Africa can learn from its neighbour’s successes and missteps.

‘Emerging industries test the adaptability and robustness of existing policy frameworks. The Namibian case has shown that they are often not comprehensively equipped to handle the unique demands and complexities of green hydrogen,’ they write. Pointing out that technology doesn’t wait for anyone (policymakers included), they argue that ‘policy must evolve swiftly alongside emerging industries to safeguard the state and its investors’.

Referring to the ambitious Daures Green Hydrogen Village pilot project in Walvis Bay, which aims to produce green hydrogen, green ammonia, green fertiliser and carbon-free agricultural produce for regional and export markets, but has had to approach its German funders for more money, the two researchers warn that ‘reliance on external capital highlights the vulnerability of small economies when pursuing large-scale, capital-intensive projects in an ever-shifting global energy market’.

They argue for a greater balance of foreign investment with domestic interests, citing the government’s decision to buy a 24% stake in the Hyphen project. ‘This move not only ensures substantial national involvement but also sets a precedent for leveraging international partnerships without compromising domestic sovereignty.’

Then there’s the issue of social legitimacy. ‘Green hydrogen, as an emerging and highly technical industry, unlike its predecessor mineral mining, presents significant challenges in comprehension and accessibility for the public,’ they say.

Meanwhile, in South Africa, the JETP management unit says a draft national standard for green hydrogen is under development, and environmental approval has been obtained for some projects. In addition, a fuel cell components manufacturing plant has been built in the OR Tambo special economic zone, and preparatory work on key catalytic GH₂ projects has been completed.

‘Given that the green hydrogen industry is a new industry […], it is not expected that production will commence earlier than four years from announcement. The projects that are being developed have estimated production to only commence from mid-2027/2028 onwards,’ the team told Daily Maverick in January.

It’s all too easy to get carried away by the hype, but there is a long way to go and a lot of work to do before realising the reported ZAR800 billion-plus in green hydrogen projects in the pipeline in South Africa.

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